Co-sponsored Workshops

There is a perceived intensification of the Atlantic hurricanes over the last decade. The climate models predict higher sea surface temperatures, which in turn leads to more intense hurricanes. There has been several analyses of trends in hurricanes, and the relation to sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nio-Southern Oscillation, etc. Yet these analyses have not, from a statistical point of view, been fully convincing. There are, e.g., issues of temporal dependence and of ecological correlation. Hurricanes are of course strongly related to precipitation extremes. In fact, recent tropical systems (Fay and Hanna) brought much needed rain to the U.S. Southeastern states, and contributed to the easing of the prolonged drought condition in the region.