Undergraduate Modeling Workshop - May 13-17, 2013

Workshop Information

May 13, 2013 - 8:30am - May 17, 2013 - 1:00pm

This week long workshop held at North Carolina State University provided an introduction to mathematical and statistical challenges in climate research. Talks were presented by statisticians and mathematicians who work in climate change research, as well as by other scientists. Students were introduced to different aspects of interdisciplinary research and the role of mathematics and statistics.

Concurrently, through the week, we used modeling of the occurrence of hurricanes as an example, and students worked with real data that is currently used to predict hurricanes. Students were provided with an overview of regression modeling for count data, and primarily used the open source software R to model and analyze the hurricane data. These projects were under the supervision of SAMSI postdocs.

Finally, student teams had the option of submitting their modeling results to a public competition for predicting hurricanes.

Schedule (pdf)

Schedule

Sunday, May 12, 2013
NCSU

6:00 p.m. Welcome Reception (Avent Ferry Guest Facilities, 1st floor)

Monday, May 13, 2013
at SAMSI

8:15 a.m. Participants meet at dorm. Transport to SAMSI.
9:00 Continental Breakfast at SAMSI
9:30 Announcements and Introduction to SAMSI
Snehalata Huzurbazar, SAMSI
10:00-11:45 Overview of Hurricanes and Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
Carl Schreck, National Climate Data Center, and Dorit Hammerling, SAMSI and NCSU
Noon frisbee and Lunch and frisbee
1:30 Statistics and Climate Research
Richard Smith, SAMSI and Dept. of Statistics and Operations Research - UNC
3:00 Break
3:30 Mathematics and Climate Research
Chris Jones, Dept. of Mathematics - UNC
5:00 Working Groups formation
5:30 Dinner at SAMSI

Tuesday, May 14, 2013
at NCSU

8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast at NCSU, SAS Hall, Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
9:00 Introduction to Hurricane Database and competition
Dorit Hammerling, SAMSI and NCSU, and Stephanie Rushley, Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU - Room 2229
10:00 Break - Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
10:30 Working Groups: acquiring the latest data - Rooms 2225, 2229, 2235
12:00 Lunch and Grad Students panel - Room 4104, Mathematics Commons
Kristin Linn, NCSU
Gina-Maria Pomann, NCSU
Kevin Penner
1:30-5:00 Lectures and hands on working with R and hurricane data: SAMSI postdocs and grad fellows
Generalized Linear Models in R
Kenneth K. Lopiano, Garvesh Raskutti, Dan Yang
Generalized Linear Models in R Frequentist and Bayesian Methods
Kenneth K. Lopiano, Garvesh Raskutti, Dan Yang, Marybeth Broadbent, and Fernando Bonassi
R code

Wednesday, May 15, 2013
at NCSU

8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast at NCSU, SAS Hall, Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
9:00 Group Work: work with R; postdocs and grad fellows will be around to answer questions. Room 2225, 2229, 2235.
10:30 Break - Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
10:45 Group Work: Groups prepare a short overview of their proposed project to hand in before lunch. Rooms 2225, 2229, 2235.
Noon Lunch - food in Room 4104, Mathematics Commons. Eat in Room 2202 or 4104.
1:00-2:15 Statistical Methods for Studying Pollution
Montserrat Fuentes, Dept. of Statistics, NCSU. Room 2229.
2:15-2:45 Break - Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
2:45-3:15 Giving Presentations: content, organization, software
Yi (Grace) Wang, SAMSI. Room 2229.
3:30-5:00 Group Work - postdocs and grad fellows will be around to help. Rooms 2225, 2229, 2235.

Thursday, May 16, 2013
at NCSU

8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast at NCSU, SAS Hall, Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
9:00-12:00 Group Work - postdocs and grad fellows will be around to help.
Rooms 2225, 2229, 2235. (Break in Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge)
12:00-1:30 Lunch and Career Panel. Room 4104, Mathematics Commons
Nate Burch, Postdoc, SAMSI and NCSU; about to start as Assistant Professor, Gonzaga University
Hazel Nichols, Research Fellow, National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences
Chris Gotwalt, Director of JMP Statistical Research and Development
1:30-5:00 Group Work - postdocs and grad fellows will be around to help
Rooms 2225, 2229, 2235. (Break in Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge)

Friday, May 17, 2013
at NCSU

8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast at NCSU, SAS Hall, Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
9:00 Group presentations and discussions - Room 2229
10:15 Break - Room 2202, Undergrad Lounge
10:30 Group presentations and discussions - Room 2229
Noon Adjourn

Group Presentations

Group 1: Nicole Gardner, Daniel Miller, Julian (Quan) Zhou
Modeling Annual Eastern U.S.Tropical Cyclone Landfall Counts

Group 2: Charles Ho, Anna Peris, Lee Richardson
Hurricane Landfall Predictions

Group 3: Evan Bittner, Daria Drozdova, Maryam Khan, Kasey Palmquist
Hurricane Landfall Modeling

Group 4: Biyue Dai, Alex Kokinov, Christopher Pratt

Group 5: Zachariah Casey, Shana Kachaochana, Verity Robert

Group 6: Brandon Sherman, Vinicius Taguchi, Kehao Zhu
2013 Hurricane Season Predictions

Group 7: Matthew Jastrebski, Nicole Slagle, Jane Zanzig

Group 8: Meagan Lovins, Nathan Wall, Xiuyuan Yu

Group 9: Adrianna Boghozian, Tracy Qi Dong, Dan King
Tropical Storms

Group 10: Ashley Corkill, Roger Estep, Yue Liu
Hurricane Forecasting Using Regression Modeling

Group 11: Corey Raphael, Jonathan Skantz, Xinyu (Gwendolyn) Tian
R Models for Hurricane Data