19 T.W. Alexander Drive
P.O. Box 14006
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006
Tel: 919.685.9350
Fax: 919.685.9360
[email protected]

2007 Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory

RISK: Perception, Policy & Practice Workshop

October 3-4, 2007

General Information
Application
Schedule

General Information

The RISK: Perception, Policy & Practice Workshop for the SAMSI program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory will be held on Wednesday - Thursday, October 3-4, 2007, hosted by SAMSI-NISS at the Radisson Hotel RTP in Research Triangle Park, NC.

The workshop will focus upon the common issues that arise almost regardless of field when using risk analysis to make decisions. The perception aspect addresses the psychology of risk assessment, both for individuals and for groups. The policy aspect revolves around strategies for managing risk, including topics such as portfolio theory, mitigation tradeoffs, adversarial issues, and actuarial accounting versus political accountability. And the practice aspect concerns the ways different fields approach the problem area, relying in different degrees upon data, elicited expert opinion, statistical models, game theory, risk communication, and OR optimization.

Program Leaders: David Banks (Duke University), Dipak Dey (University of Connecticut), Stephen Pollock (University of Michigan), David Rios Insua (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos), Lawrence Brown (University of Pennsylvania, National Advisory Committee Liaison), Richard Smith (UNC-Chapel Hill, Local Scientific Coordinator), Nell Sedransk (NISS, SAMSI Directorate Liaison)

Keynote Speakers:
Steve Pollock (University of Michigan)
Elke Weber (Columbia University)

Confirmed Speakers and Invited Discussants: Xue Bai (Carnegie Mellon University), Steve Beaulieu (RTI International), David Brown (Duke University, Fuqua School of Business), W. Matthew Carlyle (Naval Postgraduate School), Yu Cheng (University of Pittsburgh), Todd Durham (Inspire), John Green (DuPont), Amy Herring (UNC-Chapel Hill), Jim Lambert (University of Virginia), Kenneth Lichtendahl (University of Virginia), Laura McLay (Virginia Commonwealth University), Bob Obenchain (Eli Lilly), Gene Pennello (FDA), Greg Parnell (United States Military Academy, West Point), Shyam Pedadda (NIEHS), Fabrizio Ruggeri (CNR-IMATI, Milan), Judy Wang (North Carolina State University), Alyson Wilson (LANL)

Application

Online Registration is Closed.
You may register on-site from 8:00-8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, October 3

Schedule

Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP
Room H, 3rd Floor

8:00-8:30	Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30-8:45	Welcome Nell Sedransk, SAMSI and NISS
8:45-9:45	Opening Speaker Encounters with Risk PPP During a Career in Operations Research Steve Pollock, University of Michigan
	Environmental Risk
9:45-10:45	Incorporating Historical Control Data When Comparing Tumor Incidence Rates Shyam Pedadda, NIEHS Bayesian Semiparametric Density Regression: Applications to Risk Assessment in Epidemiology David Dunson, Duke University
10:45-11:15	Break
11:15-12:15	Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Environmental Toxicology John Green, DuPont Association Analyses of Bivariate Competing Risks Data Yu Cheng, University of Pittsburgh
12:15-1:30	Lunch
1:30-2:30	Weighing Multiple Risks in an Epidemiological Study Amy Herring, UNC-Chapel Hill Quantile Regression: Overview and Applications to Risk Assessment Judy Wang, North Carolina State University
2:30-3:00	Break
	Drug, Biomarker and Pharmaceutical Risk
3:00-4:30	Clinical Validation of Prognostic Biomarkers of Risk and Predictive Biomarkers of Drug Efficacy or Safety Gene Pennello, FDA Bias Correction in Pharmaceutical Risk Assessment Bob Obenchain, Eli Lilly Risk Analysis in Drug Approval Todd Durham, Inspire
4:30	Discussion Chair: David Rios Insua, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos

Thursday, October 4, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP
Room H, 3rd Floor

8:00-8:30	Continental Breakfast
	Risk Models and Methodology
8:30-10:00	Elicitation in Decision Making Kenneth Lichtendahl, University of Virginia Risk Management Models in Business Process Design Xue Bai, Carnegie Mellon University Satisficing Measures for Analysis of Risky Positions David Brown, Fuqua School, Duke University
10:00-10:30	Break
10:30-11:00	On Some Bayesian Models in Reliability Fabrizio Ruggeri, CNR-IMATI, Milan
11:00-12:00	Opening Speaker: Perception Determinants of Risk Taking: The Important Role of Risk Perception Elke Weber, Columbia University
12:00-1:00	Lunch
	Infrastructure Issues
1:00-2:00	Risk Management of Critical Infrastructure Jim Lambert, University of Virginia Modeling Patient Survivability for Emergency Medical Service Systems Laura McLay, Virginia Commonwealth University
	Adversarial Risk Analysis
2:00-2:30	How DHS Currently Manages Risk Alyson Wilson, LANL
2:30-3:00	Break
3:00-4:00	Decision Analysis Terrorism Risk Analysis Greg Parnell, United States Military Academy,West Point Trilevel Optimization of Homeland Defense Problems W. Matthew Carlyle, Naval Postgraduate School
4:00	Discussion Chair: David Banks, Duke University

Local Information (Hotels, etc.)

Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory Program Page