19 T.W. Alexander Drive
P.O. Box 14006
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006
Tel: 919.685.9350
Fax: 919.685.9360
[email protected]

2006 Program on Development, Assessment and Utilization of Complex Computer Models

Terrestrial Mid-Program Workshop

April 4, 2007

General Information
Application
Schedule

General Information

The SAMSI Terrestrial Models subgroup of the "Development, Assessment and Utilization of Complex Computer Models" program has been working on the problem of understanding vegetation response to climate change, incorporating processes that operate at fine spatial scales.

Predictions of biodiversity response primarily emphasize climate envelopes, translating the climate range where a species is found today to maps of 2 x CO2 predictions of future climate. Yet real populations are controlled by processes that operate at spatial scales of meters, being limited by dispersal and soil variation (including hydrology). These fine-scale processes depend on climate, but their impacts depend on heterogeneity.

The challenge of understanding climate impacts entails i) downscaling regional climate to realistic variation at relevant scales and ii) parameterizing that variation appropriately for forest response. This workshop is intended to provide an update of the progress within the working group and to elicit input from and generate collaborations with a small group of interdisciplinary scientists with expertise in one or more of the relevant fields (ecology, climatology, statistics, computer science). We plan for short presentations and discussions on the work that has been done to date, feedback/input from all, and plans for potential new research to extend this effort.

Application

Interested individuals should apply, using the ON-LINE APPLICATION FORM. This form also includes the application for financial support. You will be notified as soon as possible after your application if your participation will be possible; regrettably, limited seating will preclude acceptance of all applications. New researchers (graduate students, postdocs, and faculty in the early stages of their careers) and members of underrepresented groups are especially encouraged to apply.

The application/registration deadline is March 26, 2007

In order to ensure your application is correct, we ask that you:

refresh/reload the application/registration page to ensure you have all updates
type in your information (cutting and pasting will distort the information we receive)
make any clarifications/corrections, in the Special Requests section
click the submit button only once

Please make reservations at the Radisson as soon as possible. The SAMSI room block for the Radisson is effective until TBA. After this date, there is no guarantee a room will be available. If you have a change in plans, individual room reservations must be cancelled 72 hours prior to arrival. Check-in is at 3:00 PM; check-out is 12:00 noon.

Schedule

Wednesday, April 4, 2007 at SAMSI (room 104)

Workshop Focus: Subgrid processes that will control forest dynamics responses to climate change.

8:00-8:30	Registration and Continental Breakfast
SESSION I: The developing models - The thrust here is local scale processes that control forest dynamics and respond to regional climate change. These talks will review what has been accomplished by the SAMSI working group. How is climate being downscaled, and how is it being incorporated into to the stand simulator?
8:30-9:00	Overview on Modeling Climate Heterogeneity and its Consequences for Forest Diversity Jim Clark, Duke University Michael Dietze, Harvard University
9:00-10:00	State-Space Modelling of Soil-Moisture Jonathan Rougier, University of Bristol
10:00-10:30	Progress Toward Interpolating Stochastic Model Output Jim Crooks, SAMSI
10:30-11:00	Break
SESSION II: Participant research overviews - What questions are being asked at other sites, for the related processes, and with related tools that require understanding of downscaled climate data and/or model output?
11:00-11:15	Predicting the Dynamics of Caribbean Forests under Global Climate Change: Interactions of Hurricane Damage and Human Land Use Maria Uriarte, Columbia University
11:15-11:30	The East Slope of the Tropical Andes and the Adjacent Amazon Harbor Earth�s Highest Biodiversity Ken Feeley, Harvard University Miles Silman, Wake Forest University
11:30-11:45	Applying Baysian Inference to Quantify the Uncertainties Associated with a Parsimonious Conceptual Hydrological Model Wei Wu, Duke University
11:45-12:00	Connections to Wireless Technology (Radiation) Benoit Courbaud, CEMAGREF and Duke University
12:00-1:30	Lunch
DISCUSSIONS: These issues can be collapsed into a single extended discussion. The principal goals here are to determine if the modeling directions taken thus far will address the broadest range of forest dynamic questions and to plan for the next stage of potential collaborations.
1:30	Climate/Model Data Needs Moderator: Steve Sain, NCAR
	Inference Issues Moderator: Alan Gelfand, Duke University
	New Developments in Algorithms Moderator: Pankaj Agarwal, Duke University
	Research Directions Moderators: Dave Bell and Carl Salk, Duke University
6:00	Adjourn

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