Risk Program - Adversarial Risk Working Group

Adversarial Risk
A Working Group in Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory

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Announcements

Please, notice that our next working group meeting will be scheduled on Friday March 28th at 3:00 pm

Meeting Activities

Date	Topics & Readings	Notes
09/27/2007		Agenda Short seminar by David Banks on Banks and Anderson (2007) Discussion of seed document Setting some problems
10/04/2007	Risk: Perception, Policy & Practice workshop (October 3-4, 2007) For those attending the Risk: PPP workshop, we can meet there informally	Deadline for sending a paragraph with a specific research problem of your interest. Please send them to drios@samsi.info
10/11/2007	Readings for Michael Porter's talk Spatial analysis with preference specification of latent decision makers for criminal event prediction A New Point Process Transition Density Model for Space–Time Event Prediction A Decision Model for Spatial Site Selection by Criminals: A Foundation for Law Enforcement Decision Support	Agenda 11:00 -11:30 Michael Porter Intelligent Site Selection Models for Asymmetric Threat Prediction and Decision Making 11:30-12:00 David Banks DHS bioterrorism approaches and alternatives 12:00-12:30 Group discussion Setting adversarial risk problems
10/18/2007		Agenda 11:00 -11:20 Pal Nabendu Terrorist risk mapping 11:20-12:15 Jesus Rios Some adversarial risk models 12:15-12:30 Discussion
10/25/2007		11:00 -12:30 Jesus Rios An possible alternative approach to adversarial risk analysis Prof. Torbjörn Thedeen Vulnerability of Complex Infrastructure Systems presented in the Decision Theory and Risk Analysis course
11/08/2007		- Discussion of David Bank's toy problem and Robert Nau's comments - Discussion of E(minimax G) <= minimax E(G)
11/15/2007		Agenda 11:00 -11:40 Michael Porter Minimax criteria in games with uncertainty 11:40-12:30 Jesus Rios Asymmetric information in ARA
11/29/2007		Agenda 11:00 -11:45 Michael Porter Hierarchical Choice Models for Adversarial Risk 11:45 -12:30 Project discussion Computations for adversarial risk analysis
12/06/2007		Agenda 11:00 -12:30 David Rios Computations for adversarial risk analysis (cont.)
01/31/2008		Agenda 11:00 -11:30 David Rios The road ahead 11:30 -12:30 Jesus Rios Our framework for ARA: The assessment problem Example: Bidding in a Auction
02/07/2008		Agenda 11:00 -12:30 Jesus Rios Random games and the commutativity issue
02/21/2008		Agenda 11:00 -12:30 Jesus Rios The Auction problem: Answer to the comments from David Rios, Lea and David Banks
03/06/2008		Agenda 11:00 -12:00 Group discussion The Auction problem
03/13/2008		Agenda 11:30 -12:30 Lea Deleris Security risk
03/28/2008		Agenda 3:00 - 4:00 Michael Porter Discrete Choice Models in ARA

Group Members

Name	Affiliation	Email Address
David Banks	Duke University	banks@stat.duke.edu
Tim Bedford	Strathclyde Business School	tim.bedford@strath.ac.uk
Lea Deleris	IBM	lea.deleris@us.ibm.com
Betsy Ernstrom	Duke University	betsy@stat.duke.edu
Shelly-Ann Meade	N.C. State University	smmeade@ncsu.edu
Pal Nabendu	Univ. of Louisiana	nxp3695@louisiana.edu
Gregory Parnell	United States Military Academy	gregory.parnell@usma.edu
Michael Porter	N.C. State University	porter@stat.ncsu.edu
Jesus Rios	SAMSI	jrios@samsi.info
David Rios Insua	Universidad Rey Juan Carlos	david.rios@urjc.es
Huiyan Sang	Duke University	huiyan.sang@duke.edu
Justin Shows	N.C. State University	jhshows@ncsu.edu
Richard Smith	UNC-Chapel Hill	rls@email.unc.edu
Kai Wang	Duke University	kw49@duke.edu
Jun Zhuang	Univ. of Wisconsin	jzhuang@wisc.edu