Co-Sponsored Event: Coupling Uncertain Geophysical Hazards Workshop: March 24-26, 2019

** Applications received after the February 12, 2019 deadline are subject to availability.**


This workshop will be held at the

Energy Hall Rooms A-D, James B. Hunt Library on the Centennial Campus of North Carolina State University.


The forecasting of natural hazards, whether earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, or landslides, poses a difficult challenge for earth scientists. Often a cascade of events accompanies a natural disaster — rain weakens the soil on a fire-scorched hillside, which gives way causing a large landslide, killing people and damaging property. Models of the principal disaster, the landslide, have many inputs, most of which are uncertain and many of which are affected by rain and fire. The trigger for the landslide is a problem of soil stability, which is then coupled with a mass flow model, in order to predict the regions at risk.

Scientists are beginning to understand the propagation of uncertainty through mathematical models, to enable predictions of the likely outputs given the uncertainty of inputs. More challenging is the propagation of uncertainty through coupled models. Outputs of the first model are usually not directly related to the inputs of the second model — so how does one effect the coupling? How do the assumptions and uncertainties of the first model propagate through to outputs of the second? Although coupling has been recognized as an important issue in quantifying uncertainty, the analysis of coupled models has only very recently been the subject of mathematical and statistical study.

Earth scientists, applied and computational mathematicians, and statisticians are invited to meet to examine modeling of coupled hazards, to identify the primary challenges in making predictions, and to devise effective strategies to advance methodologies for tackling these complex problems. There will be an examination of the physics of the dominate geophysical process such as mudslides, landslides, avalanches, volcanic mass flow events and airborne ash clouds, and their attendant uncertainties. Researchers will examine and apply new statistical methodologies that show promise for the efficient coupling of hazards.

Confirmed speakers for this event include:

Schedule and Supporting Media

Printed Schedule

Sunday, March 24, 2019
Energy Hall Rooms A-D, James B. Hunt Library, N.C. State University

Time Description Speaker Slides
9:30-10:00am Registration
9:45-10:00am Welcome
10:00am-6:00pm Tutorial for Students/Postdocs
12:00pm LUNCH
6:00pm Dinner and mentoring session

Monday, March 25, 2019
Energy Hall Rooms A-D, James B. Hunt Library, N.C. State University

Time Description Speaker Slides
9:00am-5:00pm Various Talks
12:00pm LUNCH
5:00-6:00pm Keynote Talk
6:00pm Reception, and Discussion on Hazards, Risk, Communication and Uncertainty

Tuesday, March 26, 2019
Energy Hall Rooms A-D, James B. Hunt Library, N.C. State University

Time Description Speaker Slides
9:00am-3:00pm Talks and Panel Discussion
12:00pm LUNCH & Poster Session
3:00pm Adjourn

Questions: email