Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory

Over the past several years, there has been a wealth of scientific progress on risk analysis. As the set of underlying problems has become increasingly diverse, drawing from areas ranging from national defense and homeland security to genetically modified organisms to animal disease epidemics and public health to critical infrastructure, much research has become narrowly focused on a single area. It has also become clear, however, that the need is urgent and compelling for research on risk analysis, extreme events (such as major hurricanes) and decision theory in a broader context. Availability of past information, expert opinion, complex system models, and financial or other cost implications as well as the space of possible decisions may be used to characterize the risks in different settings. Integration of expertise developed by researchers in different scientific communities on each of these facets is the objective of this SAMSI program. Risk analysis and extreme events also carry a significant public policy component, which is driven in part by the increasing stakes and the multiplicity of stakeholders. In particular, policy concerns direct attention not only to the dramatic risks for huge numbers of people associated, for example, with events of the magnitude of Hurricane Katrina or bioterrorism, but also to \small-scale” risks such as drug interactions driven by rare combinations of genetic factors.

Working Groups:

    1. Adversarial Risk Analysis
    2. Bayes Risk
    3. Extreme Values
    4. Environmental Risk Analysis
    5. Service Sector Risk

** To see more in depth information on this program, see the report HERE **