UQ Summer School – Doug Nychka

Climate prediction and modeling do not incorporate geophysical data in the sequential manner as weather forecasting and comparison to data is typically based on accumulated statistics, such as averages. This arises because a climate model matches the state of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean “on the average” and so one would not expect the detailed weather fluctuations to be similar between a model and the real system. An emerging area for climate model validation and improvement is the use of data assimilation to scrutinize the physical processes in a model using observations on shorter time scales. The idea is to find a match between the state of the climate model and observed data that is particular to the observed weather. In this way one can check whether short time physical processes such as cloud formation or dynamics of the atmosphere are consistent with what is observed.