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2007 Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory

Kickoff Workshop

September 16 - 19, 2007

General Information
Application
Schedule

General Information

The Opening Workshop for the SAMSI program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory will be held Sunday-Wednesday, September 16-19, 2007, at the Radisson Hotel RTP in Research Triangle Park, NC. On Sunday morning, September 16, tutorials will be offered by Professors Richard Smith, Dipak Dey and Vicky Bier on three different perspectives for defining Risk: Probabilistic - Extreme Values, Decision Theoretic, and Operations Research.

The goals of the Opening Workshop are to take advantage of community input in the formation of the working groups for the program and to promote engagement in person or remotely, via web or teleconference for those not in residence at SAMSI during the program. The Workshop will engage a broadly representative segment of the statistical sciences, applied mathematics, decision analysis and operations research communities in specific research on important applications as well as theory. The workshop program will focus on open problems in both theory and application in areas such as Extreme Event Models and Multivariate Extremes; High-dimensional Decision Analysis; Environmental Risk; Expert Opinion Elicitation and Modeling; Defining, Assessing and Managing Risk. The theme for the Opening Workshop is to connect needed statistical/mathematical research with critical current decision and risk assessment/management problems.

A second workshop, RISK: Perception, Policy and Practice to be held 3-4 October will focus on the implementations of these concepts in areas such as adversarial risk, industrial risk (pharmaceutical and health risk), and risk in the energy sector. Registration is separate for the two workshops.

Program Committee: Vicki Bier (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Dipak Dey (University of Connecticut), Stephen Pollock (University of Michigan), David Rios Insua (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos), Lawrence Brown (University of Pennsylvania, National Advisory Committee Liaison), Richard Smith (University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Local Scientific Coordinator), Nell Sedransk (NISS, SAMSI Directorate Liaison).

Opening Talks: Howard Kunreuther (University of Pennsylvania) and David Rios Insua (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

Distinguished Lecturer: Christl Donnelly (Imperial College)

Closing Lecturer: Ralph Keeney (Fuqua School, Duke University)

Confirmed Speakers and Invited Discussants: Ali Abbas (Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Tim Bedford (Strathclyde Business School), Vicki M. Bier (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Bob Clemen (Duke University), Dan Cooley (NCAR/Colorado State), Richard Davis (Columbia University), Dipak Dey (University of Connecticut), Paul Garthwaite (Open University), Eric Gilleland (NCAR), Dougal Goodman (The Foundation for Science and Technology, UK), Yacov Haimes (University of Virginia), James Hammitt (Harvard University), Jonathan Hosking (IBM), Tailen Hsing (University of Michigan), Sheldon Jacobson (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Tom Knutson (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA), N.D. Shyamal Kumar (University of Iowa), Pilar Munoz (Technical University of Catalonia), Luis Pericchi (University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras), Holger Rootzen (Chalmers University of Technology),Fabrizio Rugerri (CNR-IMATI), Lianne Sheppard (University of Washington), Mitchell Small (Carnegie Mellon University), Anne Smith (CRAI), Richard Smith (University of North Carolina), Thomas Wallsten (University of Maryland-College Park), Zhengjun Zhang (University of Wisconsin)

Application

REGISTRATION IS NOW CLOSED

Speaker Abstracts

Schedule

Sunday, September 16, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP

8:30-9:15 Continental Breakfast
9:15-9:30 Welcome
Nell Sedransk, SAMSI and NISS
9:30-10:30 Tutorial on Extreme Values
Risk Analysis and Extremes
Richard Smith, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-12:00 Tutorial on Decision Theory
Prior Elicitation from Expert Opinion
Dipak Dey, University of Connecticut
12:00-1:00 Lunch
1:00-2:00 Tutorial on Operations Research
Operations Research and Risk Analysis
Vicki M. Bier, University of Wisconsin-Madison
2:00-3:00 Registration, Coffee and Refreshments
  Opening Lecturers
3:00-4:00 Decision Theory and Risk Analysis: Some organising questions
David Rios Insua, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
4:00-5:00 Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World
Howard Kunreuther, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
5:00-5:30 Poster Advertisement Session
6:30-8:30 Poster Session and Reception

SAMSI will provide poster presentation boards and tape. The board dimensions are 4 ft. wide by 3 ft. high. They are tri-fold with each side being 1 ft. wide and the center 2 ft. wide. Please make sure your poster fits the board. The boards can accommodate up to 16 pages of paper measuring 8.5 inches by 11 inches.

Monday, September 17, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP

7:45-8:30 Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:30-8:45 Welcome
Jim Berger, SAMSI
  Insurance and Financial Risk
8:45-9:30 Impact
Managing Expectations of the Analysis of Extreme- The Policy Maker's Tale
Dougal Goodman, The Foundation for Science and Technology, UK
9:30-10:15 Finance
Heavy Tails and Financial Time Series Models
Richard Davis, Columbia University
10:15-10:45 Break
10:45-11:30 Technical Approach
Technical Approach to Financial Risk for Extreme Events
Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia
11:30-12:00 Discussion Panel
Discussion of presentations on insurance and financial risk
Jonathan Hosking, IBM

Discussion: Insurance and Financial Risk
Pilar Munoz, Technical University of Catalonia
12:00-1:00 Lunch
1:00-2:45 New Researchers Session

  Zhengjun Zhang, University of Wisconsin
Testing and Modeling Extreme Dependencies in Financial Markets
  N.D. Shyamal Kumar, University of Iowa
Phase Type Distributions in Actuarial Science
  Ali Abbas, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Generalized Copula Structures for Multiattribute Utility Functions
  Dan Cooley, NCAR/Colorado State University
Prediction for Max-Stable Processes via an Approximated Conditional Density
  Eva Regnier, Naval Postgraduate School
Critical Weather Forecasts: The Needle in the Haystack
2:45-3:15 Break
  Extreme Values
3:15-4:00 Extreme Value Statistics for Atmospheric Data
Eric Gilleland, NCAR
4:00-4:45 Holger Rootzen, Chalmers University of Technology
Multivariate Extreme Value Statistics -- a risk management tool
4:45-5:15 Discussion Panel

Discussion
Tailen Hsing, University of Michigan

Assessing Conditional Extremal Risk of Flooding in Puerto Rico
Luis Pericchi, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras

Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP

8:30-9:00 Continental Breakfast
  Experts and Decisions
9:00-9:45 Elicitation of Expert Opinion as a Prior Distribution
Paul Garthwaite, Open University
9:45-10:30 Topics in the Psychology of Risk
Thomas Wallsten, University of Maryland-College Park
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-11:45 Hurricanes
Atlantic Hurricanes and Climate Change
Thomas Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
11:45-12:15 Discussion Panel
Experts, Risk and Models
Bob Clemen, Fuqua School, Duke University
12:15-1:30 Lunch
  Bio and Environmental Health Risk
1:30-2:15 Air Quality Health Risk Assessment - Methodological Issues and Needs
Anne Smith, CRAI
2:15-3:00 Health Effects Modeling
Lianne Sheppard, University of Washington
3:00-3:30 Discussion Panel
A Discussion: Random Thoughts and Risky Propositions
Sheldon Jacobson, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
3:30-4:30 Break
4:30-5:30 Distinguished Lecture
The Challenges of Analysing Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases
Christl Donnelly, Imperial College
5:30 Reception

Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Radisson Hotel RTP

8:00-8:45 Continental Breakfast
  Risk Management
8:45-9:30 Partial Specification of Risk Models
Tim Bedford, Strathclyde Business School
9:30-10:15 Forecasting for Climate
Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University
10:15-10:45 Break
10:45-11:45 Closing Lecture
Challenges of Applied Risk Management
Ralph Keeney, Fuqua School, Duke University
11:45-12:30 Summation Discussants
James Hammitt, Harvard University
Fabrizio Rugerri, CNR-IMATI
12:30-1:30 Lunch
1:30-2:15 Open Discussion
2:15-4:00 Working Group Formation and Reports

 




 
 

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