2011-12 Program on Uncertainty Quantification: Climate Modeling
The area of climate modeling is a quintessential field of application for UQ. In fact, a sizable part of the research done in the quantification of uncertainty in computer models has been driven by the pressing needs of climate modelers. Climate models are computer codes based on physical principles that simulates the complex interactions between the many parts of the Earth system such as atmosphere and oceans. A significant issue of interest is for instance the problem of regional climate as the global models cannot on their own give enough information at the regional/local scales. Various strategies (downscaling and upscaling) can be considered whereby various combinations of global and regional models are combined to gain information on model uncertainty. Other issues include: development of reliable atmospheric and ocean models and interface between the two, regional and local risk assessment from models, paleoclimate models and how to best deal with models that have huge uncertainties and biases.
Organizers: Amy Braverman (JPL, California Institute of Technology, and UCLA), Xabier Garaizar (LLNL), Dave Higdon (LANL), Gardar Johanneson (LLNL), Donald Lucas (LLNL)