The Changing Climate of Weather Prognostication: The Irony of Uncertainty Leading to Better Forecasts

Dates: 
December 4, 2013 - 7:00pm - 8:00pm
Location: 
James B. Hunt, Jr. Library on N.C. State University's Centennial Campus
Speaker: 
Greg Fishel

Greg Fishel SAMSI is hosting this lecture by Greg Fishel, Chief Meteorologist at Capital Broadcasting Company.

 There is no charge to attend the event, and the lecture is open to all.

 DIRECTIONS to the James B. Hunt, Jr. Library on N.C. State University's Centennial Campus

Download poster for this event.

Increasing uncertainty with time: the 70° high temperature line predicted by multiple models one day and one week beforehand.



Abstract: For years, computer model forecasts have been shown on TV as a single, what we call deterministic solution. These forecasts are destined to be wrong, with the only question being by how much. A different approach is sprouting roots, where the emphasis is not just on a forecast, but on the degree of uncertainty in that forecast. Greg will discuss how talking about uncertainty will help in delivering a better forecast.

 

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