19 T.W. Alexander Drive P.O.Box 14006 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006 Tel: 919.685.9350 Fax: 919.685.9360 [email protected]

Services Sector Risk
A Working Group in Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory

Group Leaders: Haipeng Shen
Webmaster: Huijing Jiang

Password Protected Site

Announcements

Next Meeting

Dec. 25^th: Discussion about the Service Classification Pilot Study.

News!

10/19/07 The access password has been updated. Please check your email,

Meeting Time: Friday 10:00 – 11:30
Location: NISS building, Room 203

Working Groups Dial-in & WebEx Instructions

Group Email: svcs-risk AT samsi DOT info

Meeting Activities

Date	Topics & Readings	Notes
12/11/07	Pilot Study (pps, pdf) by Farhad Shafti, Tim Bedford and Lesley Walls	Meeting about Service Classification
12/04/07		Meeting about Reduced Order Models and Bayesian Risk Analysis
11/27/07	[1] Service Risk Classification [2] An Empirical Approach to Service Classification for Productivity Management Studies, Shafti, F., Meer, R.V.D., Williams, T.	Farhad led a discussion about the risk & service classification problem. His proposal is to select the service dimensions empirically and based the classification with respect to the selected dimensions. He also discussed a series of tasks we need to consider: 1. One is to identify the services we will focus on. Nicoleta suggested looking into the classification provided by NAICS. 2. The UK group will work on defining the list of dimensions 3. The IBM group (Lea and Jon) will look into risk factors. 4. Once we have the table filled in, Nicoleta and Haipeng will take over the data mining and the statistical analysis.
11/13/07	[1] Mircea, Reduced Order Model for Random Elements and Solutions Stochastic Equations [2] Chick, S.E.(2006), Bayesian Ideas and Discrete Event Simulation: Why, What and How, Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference, p96-106 [3] Bayarri, M.J., Berger, J.O., Paulo, R., Sacks, J., Cafeo, J.A., Cavendish, J., Lin, C.H., Tu, J.(2007), A Framework for Validation of Computer Models, Technometrics, 49(2), p138-154. [4] Gans, N., G. Koole and A. Mandelbaum. Telephone Call Centers: Tutorial, Review, and Research Prospects," M&SOM, 5:79-141, 2003. [5] Lawrence D. Brown, Noah Gans, Avishai Mandelbaum, Anat Sakov, Haipeng Shen, Sergey Zeltyn, Linda H. Zhao (2005), Statistical Analysis of a Telephone Call Center: A Queueing-Science Perspective, Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol 100: 36-50. (longer version)	1. Mircea gave a presentation on reduced order models. 2. The group discussed the connection with BDES, and outlines future plans.
11/06/2007	[1] Shen, H. Services Sector Risk Projects	1. Discuss two projects 2. Discuss potential leader and participants for each project. 3. Discuss plans for the next couple meetings: a) one meeting for the Service Classification team on a date that everybody interested can make. b) one meeting for the Bayesian Discrete Event Simulation team when Mircea gives his presentation on reduced order models.
10/23/2007	[1] Shen, H. Workforce Management with Uncertain Inputs [2] Rios, D., Bayesian Discrete Event Simulation References: [1] Insua, D.R., Muruzabal, J., Palomo, J., Ruggeri, F., Holgado, J., Moreno, R.(2007), Simulation in Industrial Statistics, Technical Reports. [2] Chick, S.E.(2004), Bayesian Methods for Discrete Event Simulation, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, p89-100. [3] Chick, S.E.(2000), Bayesian Methods for Simulation, Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference, p109-118. [4] NG, S.H., Chick, S.E.(2006), Reducing Parameter Uncertainty for Stochastic Systems, ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 16(1), p26-51. [5] Chick, S.E.(2001), Input Distribution Selection for Simulation Experiments: Accounting for Input Uncertainty, Operations Research, 49(5), p744-758. [6] Chick, S.E., Koichiro, I.(2001), New Two-Stage and Sequential Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System, Operations Research, 49(5), p732-743. [7] Molina, G., Bayarri, M.J., Berger, J.O.(2005), Statistical Inverse Analysis for a Network Microsimulator, Technometrics, 47(4), p388-398	1. Haipeng Shen talks about Workforce Management with Uncertain Inputs. (The slides are attached.) 2. David Rios talks about Bayesian discrete event simulation. 3. Discussion of potential topics for the G&O statement
10/16/2007	[1] Research Proposal of Tim Bedford, Lesley Walls and Farhad Shafti [2] Cook D.P., Goh, C.H., Chung, C.H. (1999), Service Typologies: A State of the Art Survey, Production and Operations Management, 8(3), p318-338 [3] Shafti, F., Meer, R.V.D., Williams, T., (2007), An Empirical Approach to Service Classification for Productivity Management Studies, Service Industries Journal , 27(6), In press
10/08/2007	[1] Meeting outline (including research interests of Nicoleta Serban and Haipeng Shen) [2] Research Interests of Lea Deleris [3] Research Interests of David Rios Insua [4] Research Interests of Jesus Rios [5] A Preliminary Set of Research Topics (to be discussed next week) 1. Simulation, (taking into account some measure for uncertainty, instead of being deterministic) 2. Workforce Management a. Human factors b. Skilled workers (job role, skill sets) c. Acquisition d. Outsourcing e. Cost prediction 3. Uncertain Measures 4. Perception of Risk, (from the perspective of Customers and Providers)	1. Several people described their research backgrounds, and interests related to service sector research analysis. Slides are linked to the left. 2. A preliminary set of research topics are identified. (See Item 5 to the left.) Please give some thoughts to the list of topics, and we will have some discussions around the topics next week, trying to decide on a couple of topics to focus on. 3. Some discussion about meeting time is held. One option is Tuesdays 10:00-11:30 (or 11:00). This needs to be confirmed during next meeting. 4. For those unable to make today's meeting, feel free to suggest research topics. 5. Everybody is encouraged to provide a list of references for the group to read.
10/02/2007	[1] Jonathan R Hosking , Service Industry Risk [2] Lea Deleris, Adaptive Project Risk Management, SAMSI opening workshop poster [3] Mojsilovic; B. Ray; S.Takriti; R. Lawrence (2005), A Logistic Regression Framework for Information Technology Outsourcing Lifecycle Management, IBM Research Report RC23761 [4] Palomo, J., Rios Insua, D., Ruggeri (2007), Modeling External Risks in Project Management, to appear in Risk Analysis [5] Palomo, J., Rios Insua, D., Ruggeri (2004), Dynamic Models with Expert Input with Applications to Project Cost Forecasting [6] Jesus Palomo, Fabrizio Ruggeri, David Rios Insua, Enrico Cagno, Franco Caron, Mauro Mancini (2006), On Bayesian Forecasting of Procurement Delays: A Case Study, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 22 (2), p181-192	1. Jon Hosking presented some research problems that are of interest to IBM. He also mentioned that IBM would host an internal workshop on services next Wednesday/Thursday. After the workshop, he would have more concrete ideas of potential research topics. 2. A discussion is motivated about data availability. Jon has been talking with folks at IBM. Nicoleta Serban mentioned simulation as one alternative. 3. Tim Bedford suggested one way to move forward is to first agree on a set of problems of common interest, and then try to solve the data availability problem. The group agreed on this approach. 4. Due to schedule conflict with some participants, we decided to move the meeting time to Monday 9:30-11:00. So our next group meeting would be Monday the 8th. I have confirmed that with Sue. Unless I hear objections, we will stick with the new time. 5. Here is a little homework for next meeting. Everyone would write up a short presentation about research background, interests in this working group, problems to suggest, and links to relevant papers/references. For our next meeting, we would generate more discussions around those, with the goal of identifying of common interest in the near future.

Group Members

Name	Affiliation	Email Address
Tim Bedford	Strathclyde Business School	[email protected]
Lea Deleris	IBM	[email protected]
Jonathan Hosking	IBM	[email protected]
David Rios Insua	Universidad Rey Juan Carlos	[email protected]
Huijing Jiang	Georgia Institute of Technology	[email protected]
Jesus Rios	SAMSI	[email protected]
Fabrizio Ruggeri	CNR-IMATI	[email protected]
Huiyan Sang	Duke University	[email protected]
Nicoleta Serban	Georgia Institute of Technology	[email protected]
Farhad Shafti	Strathclyde Business School	[email protected]
Haipeng Shen	UNC-Chapel Hill	[email protected]
Richard Smith	UNC-Chapel Hill	[email protected]
Lesley Walls	University of Strathclyde	[email protected]
Saeid Yasamin	Indiana University	[email protected]

Send your comments about this site to: [email protected]