SAMSI Home Page

Anomaly Detection
A Working Group in National Defense and Homeland Security

 

Group Leaders: David A. Dickey (NC State University) and Douglas G. Kelly (UNC Chapel Hill)


Password Protected Site (Data Files)

 

 

Announcements

Presentations from the Anomaly Detection Mid-Year Workshop are online

Meeting Time: Thursdays 9:30 - 11:00 am
Location: NISS building, 2nd floor conference room

 

Remote access for the meeting is available:

  • Via webcam -- See instructions (pdf)
  • Via teleconference at 919-685-9338 not earlier than 9:40 am

Note: Until we can get the needed bandwidth, equipment, etc. for broadcasting meetings via a webcam, SAMSI will be employing the following process for remote participation in working groups. A webcam picture will be available for viewing during the meetings. However, for audio, participants will have to call into the conference line.


Meeting Activities

Date Topics & Readings Notes
TBA NDHS Closing Workshop  
May 4 2006 Presentation by Shenek Heyward on a double scan statistic  This is our last group meeting
April 27 2006

Presentation by Al Ozonoff

  • "Hidden Markov Models for Prospective Surveillance" (Slides .pdf)
 
April 20 2006

Presentation by Zhengyuan Zhu

  • "Introducing Spatial Dependence in Spatial Scan Statistics"
Slides available on the Secure Page
April 13 2006 Presentation by David Banks and Gauri Datta  
April 6 2006

Open Discussion

Paper of Interest:

Pilla R. S., Tao P. and Priebe C. E. (2003). Adaptive Methods for Spatial Scan Analysis via Semiparametric Mixture Models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 12 (2), 332 - 353. (.pdf)

 
March 30 2006

Presentation by Roy Welsch

  • "Simultaneous Robust Estimation and Variable Selection" (Slides .pdf)

Paper of Interest:

  • McCann L and Welsch R. Robust Variable Selection Using Least Angle Regression and Elemental Set Sampling (.pdf)
 
March 23 2006

Presentation by Michael Porter

  • "Using Point Process Residuals in Space-Time Anomaly Detection" (Slides .pdf)

Paper of Interest:

  • Baddeley A, Turner R, Moller J and Hazelton M (2005). Residual Analysis for Spatial Point Processes. JRSS B, 67 (5), 617-666. (.pdf)
 
March 16 2006 No Meeting - Spring Break  
March 9 2006

Presentation by Gauri Datta

  • "Bayesian multiple hypotheses testing for Poisson data: some ideas" (Slides .pdf)
 
March 2 2006

Presentation by Jim Lynch

  • "Some Ideas for Detecting Spurious Observations Based on Mixture Models" (Slides .ppt)
 
Feb 23 2006

Presentation by Lisa R. Denogean

  • Discussion of "Scan Statistics on Enron Graphs" by Carey Priebe et al. (Slides .pdf)

Paper of Interest:

  • Priebe CE, Conroy JM, Marchette DJ and Park Y (2005). Scan Statistics on Enron Graphs. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 11, 229-247. (.pdf)
 
Feb 16 2006

Presentation by Jeff M. Phillips

  • "Maximizing Statistical Discrepancy" (Slides .pdf)

Paper of Interest:

  • Naus JL and Wartenberg D (1997). A Double-Scan Statistic for Clusters of Two Types of Events. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92 (439), 1105-1113. (.pdf)
 
Feb 9 2006

Presentation by Gauri Datta

  • Discussion of "A Bayesian Spatial Scan Statistic" by Neill, Moore and Cooper (Slides .pdf)

Papers of Interest:

  • Neill DB, Moore AW and Cooper GF. A Bayesian Spatial Scan Statistic. (.pdf)
  • Scott JG and Berger JO (2003). An Exploration of Aspects of Bayesian Multiple Testing. (.pdf)
Presentations from the Mid-Year Workshop are now posted on the website
Feb 2 2006

No meeting - Anomaly Detection Mid-Year Workshop on Feb 3 (See Website)

See also:

  • Gauri Datta's Meeting Presentation, "Summary of 'A Spatial Scan Statistic' by M. Kulldorff" (Slides .ppt)
See the data page for a new file courtesy of David Dickey

Jan 26 2006

Presentation by Myron Katzoff

  • "A Very Basic Introduction to Threshold Time Series Models" (Slides .pdf)

Paper of Interest:

  • Tong H and Lim KS (1980). Threshold Autoregression, Limit Cycles and Cyclical Data. JRSS B, 42 (3), 245-292. (Scanned .pdf)

 

Jan 19 2006

Presentation by Francisco Vera

  • "Prediction of Crime/Terrorist Event Locations" (Slides .ppt)
 

Jan 12 2006

Presentation by Bahjat Qaqish

  • Discussion of "The Interpoint Distance Distribution as a Descriptor to Point Patterns..." by Bonetti and Pagano (Slides .pdf)
 

Dec 8 2005

Presentation by Curtis Storlie:

  • Discussion of "Temporal Surveillance Using Scan Statistics" (.doc) by Joseph Naus and Sylvan Wallenstein (Slides .pdf)

 
Dec 1 2005

Presentation by David A. Dickey:

  • "Stationarity Issues in Time Series Modeling" (Slides .ppt)

Links of Interest:

  • Galit Shmueli's blog on biosurveillance
 
Nov 24 2005 No meeting (Thanksgiving)  
Nov 17 2005

Presentation by Lisa Denogean:

  • Discussion of "Statistical Issues and Challenges Associated with Rapid Detection of Bio-Terrorist Attacks," by Fienberg and Shmueli (Slides .ppt)

Followed by an open discussion of possible directions for the group

Papers of Interest:

  • Goldenberg A, Smueli G, Caruana RA and Fienberg SE (2002). Early Statistical Detection of Anthrax Outbreaks by Tracking Over-the-Counter Medication Sales. PNAS, 99 (8), 5237-5240. (.pdf)
  • Brown D, Dalton J and Hoyle H (2004). Spatial Forecast Methods for Terrorist Events in Urban Environments. ISI 2004, LNCS 3073, 426-435. (.pdf)
  • Liu H and Brown DE (2003). Criminal Incident Prediction Using a Point-Pattern-Based Density Model. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 603-622. (.pdf)

Summary Email of Meeting

 

More topics...

Nov 10 2005

Presentation by Bahjat Qaqish:

  • "Regression Diagnostics for GEE" (Slides .pdf)
    • Preisser JS and Qaqish BF (1996). Deletion Diagnostics for Generalized Estimating Equations. Biometrika, 83 (3), 551-562. (.pdf)
    • Qaqish BF and Preisser JS (1999). Resistant Fits for Regression with Correlated Outcomes an Estimating Equations Approach. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 75, 415-431. (.pdf)

Papers of Interest:

  • Bonetti M and Pagano M (2005). The Interpoint Distance Distribution as a Descriptor of Point Patterns, with an Application to Spatial Disease Clustering. Statistics in Medicine, in press. (.pdf)
 
Nov 3 2005

Presentation by Susie Bayarri:

  • "Multiple Testing: The Problem and Some Bayesian and Frequentist Solutions" (Slides .pdf)

Papers on Algorithmic Process Control:

  • Wiel SAV, Tucker WT, Faltin FW and Doganaksoy N (1992). Algorithmic Statistical Process Control: Concepts and an Application. Technometrics, 34 (3), 286-297. (Scanned .pdf)
  • Montgomery DC, Keats JB, Runger GC and Messina WS (1994). Integrating Statistical Process Control and Engineering Process Control. Journal of Quality Technology, 26 (2), 79-87. (Scanned .pdf)

Other papers of interest (see new papers posted under Oct 27 also):

  • Vanbrackle L and Williamson GD (1999) A Study of the Average Run Length Characteristics of the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. Statistics in Medicine, 18, 3309-3319. (.pdf)

Summary Email of Meeting

The spirit of these papers on control theory is use time series to model the output, use this to forecast, see how far the forecast is from a targeted value, build a controller to correct for the difference, and then look at the residuals.
(-- Jim Lynch)

Oct 27 2005

Presentation by Bahjat Qaqish:

  • Discussion of "Syndromic Surveillance: Is it Worth the Effort?" by Stoto, Schonlau and Mariano (Slides .pdf)
  • For a different approach, see also:
    • Williamson GD and Hudson GW (1999) A Monitoring System for Detecting Aberrations in Public Health Surveillance Reports. Statistics in Medicine, 18, 3283-3298. (.pdf)
    • Buckeridge DL, Burkom H, Campbell M, Hogan WR and Moore AW (2005). Algorithms for Rapid Outbreak Detection: A Research Synthesis. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 38, 99-113. (.pdf)
Summary Email of Meeting
Oct 20 2005

Presentation by David Dickey:

  • Time Series (Slides .ppt)
    • Time series handout (.pdf)
    • American Airlines analysis -- See protected site for data (.pdf)
  • Some analysis by Jim Lynch on American Airlines data:
Summary Email of Meeting
Oct 13 2005

Presentation by Deepak Agarwal:

  • "Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models" (Slides .ppt )

Paper mentioned by Howard on scan statistics:

  • "Temporal Surveillance Using Scan Statistics," by Joseph Naus and Sylvan Wallenstein, to be published in Statistics in Medicine (.doc)
 
Oct 6 2005

Presentation by Yajun Mei:

  • "Introduction to Sequential Change-Point Problems" (Slides .pdf)

Links of Interest:

Summary Email of Meeting

 

Also see the protected page for a data file containing ER data, courtesy of Galit Shmueli.

Sep 29 2005

Presentation by Gauri Datta:

  • Discussion of “A Spatial Scan Statistic” by M. Kulldorff (Slides .ppt )

Links of Interest:

Summary Email of Meeting

The next National Syndromic Surveillance Conference is scheduled to be Oct. 18-20, 2006 (workshop on the 1st day) in Baltimore, Maryland. There won't be a formal announcement or call for abstracts for months, but some SAMSI members might like advance notice. One objective of the Society is to promote cooperation with groups that have overlapping interests, such as SAMSI. (--Howard S. Burkom)

Sep 22 2005 Articles:
  • Stoto MA, Schonlau M, Mariano LT (2004). Syndromic Surveillance: Is it Worth the Effort? Chance, 17 (1), 19-24.(Scanned pdf)
  • Kulldorff M (1997). A Spatial Scan Statistic. Commun. Statist. -- Theory Meth., 26 (6), 1481-1496. (Scanned pdf)
  • Banks D (2005). How Are We Meeting the New Challenge? AMSTAT News, September 2005, 49-51. [Statistics and Homeland Defense] (Scanned pdf)
Links of Interest:
  • "Introduction to the Use of Geographic Information Systems in Public Health" Supercourse
  • More information and references on the Scan Statistic

Summary Email of First Meeting


Group Members

Name Email Address Affiliation
Deepak Agarwal [email protected] AT & T Labs

David Banks

[email protected]

Duke University

M. J. Bayarri

[email protected]

University of Valencia

Howard S. Burkom [email protected] Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab

Lawrence Cox

[email protected]

National Center for Health Statistics

Gauri Datta

[email protected]

SAMSI, Duke University and University of Georgia

Lisa R. Denogean

[email protected]

SAMSI and North Carolina State University

David A. Dickey

[email protected]

North Carolina State University

Kevin Ward Drummey

[email protected]

U.S. Department of Defense

Joyee Ghosh

[email protected]

Duke University

Ryan Gill

[email protected]

University of Louisville

Joe Fred Gonzalez, Jr.

[email protected]

National Center for Health Statistics

Shenek Heyward

[email protected]

North Carolina State University

Myron Katzoff

[email protected]

National Center for Health Statistics

Douglas G. Kelly

[email protected]

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Jon Kettenring

[email protected]

Drew University

Se Hee Kim

[email protected]

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Xiaodong Lin

[email protected]

University of Cincinnati

James Lynch

[email protected]

University of South Carolina

Yajun Mei

[email protected]

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center

George Michailidis

[email protected]

University of Michigan

Kathryn Mills

[email protected]

Department of Defence (Canada)

Ted Norminton

[email protected]

Carleton University

Cheolwoo Park

[email protected]

University of Georgia

Richard Picard

[email protected]

Los Alamos National Laboratory

Bahjat Qaqish

[email protected]

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Greg Rempala

[email protected]

University of Louisville

Henry Rolka

[email protected]

National Center for Public Health

Chad Shafer

[email protected]

Carnegie Mellon University

Galit Shmueli

[email protected]

University of Maryland

Curtis Stolie

[email protected]

SAMSI and North Carolina State University

Francisco Vera

[email protected]

NISS and SAMSI

Clifford Wang

[email protected]

Army Research Office

Abera Wouhib

[email protected]

National Center for Health Statistics

Zhengyuan Zhu

[email protected]

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill


If you are interested in participating in a working group, please send e-mail to [email protected] giving your full contact information and stating which working group(s). You will be sent instructions by e-mail about how to participate.

 

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