Optimal Persistence Patterns

Timothy DelSole

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
George Mason University

In this talk I introduce the concept of an optimal persistence pattern. An optimal persistence pattern (OPP) is a component of a time-varying field that remains auto-correlated for the longest time-lags. It is possible to construct a complete set of optimal persistence patterns ordered by their decorrelation times. The resulting analysis decomposes time series into nonstationary and stationary components, orders the nonstationary components by their signal-to-noise ratios, and orders the stationary components by their decorrelation time. Examples of OPPs drawn from meteorological and oceanographic data sets will be presented and interpreted. We also present results of applying OPP analysis to the climate simulations of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The use of OPPs as a basis for extending statistical forecast schemes will also be discussed.

Last Update: May 11, 2005