How to Use Imperfect Models in Assimilating Data

Zoltan Toth
National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Weather Service / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This presentation will briefly review existing approaches to the use of imperfect models in the assimilation of observational data. Shortcomings of the currently used approaches, as well as attempts to ameliorate some of the problems, will also be discussed. A new forecast initialization method, based on a distinction between initial value and model related errors, will also be presented, along with a demonstration of the method with a simple dynamical system.

Last Update: September 29, 2005